Ukraine has liberated Urozhayne. How does this threaten Russia and what window of opportunity has the Ukrainian Armed Forces gained?
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has announced the liberation of Urozhayne village in Donetsk region. “Urozhayne has been liberated. Our defenders are consolidating their positions. Offensive actions continue,” Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said on Wednesday.
She was followed by a representative of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andriy Kovalev, who confirmed the capture of the village.
Russian Z-bloggers reported that Russian troops had left the village of Urozhayne to the east of the village of Staromayorske, which they had previously lost, but there has been no confirmation of this information until now.
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Urozhayne is one of the small villages stretching along the Mokri Yaly River that is part of the so-called Vremiyivka salient, a problematic flank for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that was formed last year as a result of Russian troops wedging their way into Ukrainian defences on the border of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
Today, this ledge does not exist – it was completely cut off during the Ukrainian army’s summer offensive. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have now intervened in the Russian battle lines and have practically reached the second main line of Russian defence in this area. Its main stronghold in this area is the village of Staromlynivka, located 2-3 km south of Urozhayne.
It was at the Vremiyivka ledge that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated the most settlements during their summer offensive.
The capture of the neighbouring village of Staromayorske by the Ukrainians was confirmed in early August, and even then, Russian Z-channels suggested that Urozhayne would last no more than three days. However, Russian troops continued to defend it for two more weeks, bringing in reserves and continuously counterattacking.
Why is Urozhayne so important?
It covers the left flank of the Ukrainian offensive and, together with Staromayorske, makes it possible to form a fairly large bridgehead for further advancement to the sea, with attacks coming from different directions.
The threat to the Russian units concentrated in the area of Pryiutne to the west of Urozhayne is a possible attack that could cut across them and the units in Staromlynivka. A strike along the river towards the village of Krasna Polyana and further to Mariupol is also promising and possible. There are other options.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army continues to exert pressure in other areas of the southern front. There are reports of the capture of the village of Robotyne between Orikhove and Tokmak, which also means reaching the second line of Russian defence. There is information about attacks on Vasylivka and the occupation of footholds on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
There are more and more potential offensive directions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have many windows of opportunity, which is bad for the defending side.
The persistence with which the Russian army defended Urozhayne shows how seriously Gerasimov’s Russian General Staff feels the threat of stretching the battle lines and breaking through the defensive lines.
He is trying to stabilise the front line and conduct an active defence, trying to knock out the enemy, prevent it from turning around or at least buy time, but to do so he has to bring more and more reserves into the battle, including strategic ones.
In the absence of prerequisites for a counter-offensive, this defensive tactic requires more and more resources. Reserve units are available, but not all of them can be deployed – some cover other, so-called tank-hazardous areas, others are not capable of performing urgent tasks, and still others are needed for a rainy day.
The attacks by small groups using the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the disclosure of Russian firing positions and their suppression through effective artillery and targeting, are somewhat reminiscent of the tactics of the Wagner PMC in the Bakhmut area.
However, Wagner operated on a narrow section of the frontline, while Ukrainian units are trying to break the Russian defensive lines over a considerable length.
Obviously, the second option is preferable, but in both cases, heavy losses for the attacking side are inevitable.
Although in the case of a massive attack, they could be much higher – and without a guarantee of success.
Given this nature of hostilities, it is the balance of forces that matters most when the parties approach the decisive phase of a military operation. This is not just mathematics, but also the morale of the soldiers and hundreds of other factors.
This is something that only a brilliant general staff can calculate. And not always.
