China and Hungary deepen security cooperation
China has proposed to Hungary to expand bilateral cooperation beyond traditional trade, economic and investment cooperation and deepen cooperation in public security. This idea was voiced by Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong during a meeting in Budapest with Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to China (1999-2001) Ihor Lytvyn, exclusively for the Public Diplomacy Foundation, commented on this event:
“Hungary and the Orban government have been trying to weaken its dependence on Western countries for all these years. This suggests that looking for an ally in China in the fight against terrorism may be even more support for Hungary in its, to a certain extent, separatist actions (if these actions are related to the conditions of Hungary’s membership in the EU). There have already been cases when Hungary has stood aside or opposed the European Union’s position on criticism of China on human rights and many other issues. At the same time, Hungary is willing to accept Chinese investment in sensitive sectors, despite the EU’s calls for coordinating relations with China in line with Brussels’ policy. We believe that the security cooperation agreement can be seen as a diplomatic victory for Beijing in the European Union.”
The ambassador also recalled the economic relations and priorities shared by China and the EU:
“We know that China is trying in every way to ‘help’ the European Union to be more independent of the United States. At the same time, we all understand and know that the EU is the community of states with which China has the largest trade turnover. In 2022, it was $835 billion. Therefore, the pearls of Russian propaganda that China has only one way left – to be an unquestioning friend of Russia – do not stand up to criticism, because China has the largest trading partners – the United States and the European Union,” Ihor Lytvyn concluded.
Alina Grytsenko, Senior Consultant at the Institute for Strategic Studies, shared her analysis of the meeting between Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban:
“Strengthening security cooperation is possible and it will definitely be strengthened, the only question is to what extent and in what area, because they have signed an agreement aimed at bilateral cooperation in law enforcement. This will take the form of cooperation in, for example, anti-terrorism activities, combating transnational drug trafficking, etc. Why? For China, Hungary remains the “gateway” to Europe. Despite the fact that Europe today recognises the need to continue economic cooperation with China, which is quite beneficial for it, it also recognises that trade is quite asymmetrical and this is a negative factor for the European economy, so the trend towards reducing trade and economic ties with China and levelling these ties will continue to develop and evolve. Given the tense political relations, this will only strengthen this trend, and Hungary is not yet in the “mainstream” with its European partners, and they use China as a trigger. As long as Viktor Orbán is in power, China will use Hungary as an outpost in Europe, and Hungary, in turn, will use China for its own mercantile, material purposes to attract investment and develop infrastructure. Orban will thus use these ties as a tool of intimidation policy to blackmail official Brussels and exert pressure and influence to prevent, for example, the blocking of funds to be allocated to Hungary, etc.”
The analyst assured that such a meeting would not lead to tectonic changes in the security geopolitical balance of Europe:
“In general, I think that they are unlikely to sign any large-scale military pacts, because this will be a red line for Brussels that Orban is unlikely to risk crossing, but it is quite possible to “play” with this direction, because when they talk about security, one immediately imagines that the Chinese will start building military bases in Hungary and the security architecture in Europe will collapse. Most likely, there will be very limited cooperation. Plus, the personal factor is very important. This, again, does not mean that after Orban leaves office, China-Hungary relations will remain stable.”
Regarding the meeting between Obran and Wang Xiaohong, Petro Shevchenko, an analyst based in China and a writer for LB.ua, highlights three key points. First, Hungary is not without reason the flagship of European cooperation with China and is potentially the frontline for its potential development. Europe needs this primarily in case the United States loses its leverage over EU countries. And this is likely to happen given the possible rise to power of a president whose slogans will be isolationist in nature, as well as the growth of internal socio-economic tensions and new political challenges. And then Europe may drift towards geostrategic and geopolitical autonomy, where relations with China will be important, especially trade and economic relations. In the case of Hungary, we can see that such a meeting with the Chinese Minister of the Interior is already placing emphasis on security issues. In the future, Chinese security technologies could be tested in Hungary itself. If Hungary succeeds in this project, barriers to cooperation with Chinese security technology companies could also be removed, which could then be extrapolated to other European countries. This new level of cooperation highlights the growing homogenisation of Hungary’s and China’s security vision.
Secondly, the meeting mentioned the One Belt, One Road Initiative, which means opening up new opportunities for China in Hungary, deepening economic cooperation, and attracting new Chinese investments. For example, Fudan University (Shanghai) plans to open a branch in Budapest in 2024, with a capacity of five thousand students and 500 teachers. In addition, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD plans to build its first European plant for the production of passenger cars using new energy sources in Hungary. This project will bring thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investment to the country.
Taken together, this forms a picture in which Budapest’s vanguard role implies investments not only in the manufacturing sector, but also in the infrastructure sector. This may also be interesting for Ukraine in the context of post-war reconstruction. And China is proving that it is serious about Europe, that it is a strategic partner, a potential market for sales and technology. It is also pushing Europe towards strategic autonomy. Moreover, in the future, Hungary may become a “Chinese Singapore in Europe” if China decides to do what the US is doing now, namely export capital and issue yuan into the global economy so that countries can use this yuan to buy Chinese goods. To sum up, it is important to emphasise the interconnectedness of these components. When discussing security issues, China wants to protect its investments from possible sanctions measures at the level of the Ministry of Security, as it has been doing on the African continent.
