How will develop relations between Ukraine and USA: opinion of the Editor-in-Chief of New Eastern Europe Adam Reichardt

1. How can develop relations during the Trump administration? Can Ukraine get some profit?

This is a very challenging question. We see that there is somewhat of split inside the Trump administration when it comes to Ukraine. On the one hand, is the official position of the State Department which has shown strong support for Ukraine and its efforts to reform and come closer to the Euro-Atlantic Community. This was clearly conveyed with the appointment of Kurt Volker as the US Special Representative to Ukraine who has been a strong signal of US support for Ukraine. On the other hand is the strange mixed messages that are coming out of the White House which are much more ambiguous. The most recent statements by President Trump that $250 million in security support to Ukraine will be withheld until a “review” can take place is a worrying sign. Lastly, Ukraine has strong support outside the White House – in Congress – which originally approved the security aid. Here is where there may be better opportunities to work with American politicians who see hope in Ukraine’s path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. All in all, it is very difficult to predict how the Trump White House seek to develop relations with Ukraine and how Ukraine could get any profit from relations. Also, since next year is an election year, there will be even less attention paid for foreign affairs. Hence, Ukraine may have to wait a little longer before any real steps take place in US-Ukraine relations.

2. When is possible direct meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy? What are the most possible issues for discussion?

There was a plan for Trump to meet with Zelenskyy in Warsaw during the events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of WWII. Unfortunately, Trump cancelled his participation and instead Vice President Mike Pence came to Poland. However, there still was a meeting between Zelenskyy and Pence, and the meeting seemed to be very positive.

We know that Zelenskyy has an open invitation to visit the White House, but we do not know yet when that will take place. Certainly the issue of support will be a likely one for discussion. I would also suspect that the issue of relations with Russia would be on the agenda and how to end the conflict in Donbas. However, it is unclear which approach the White House would take in these discussions. Another issue which has been recently brought up by National Security Advisor John Bolton is the concern of Chinese influence in Ukraine after the announcement that China is in talks to buy the Ukraine-based Motor Sich company.

3. Are there chances for more active role of the USA in Normandy format, including readiness to enter this negotiations platform.

Yes, I think the US can play a more active role and perhaps even become a member of the Normandy format. In my view, there has been little progress in the Normandy format to ensure proper implementation of the Minsk II agreements. This means that the Normandy format is not entirely successful and the talks remain at an impasse. A reconfiguration of the diplomatic talks could help end the conflict and maybe even force Russia to take responsibility for its illegal actions and I think Ukraine would welcome US participation in the Normandy format.